The Commercial Real Estate Sector Has Failed To Rebound As The Economic Recovery In Croatia Remains Terribly Muted And Essentially Export-Driven.
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Croatia's commercial real estate sector has stabilised, but the prospects remains extremely flat at this stage, and as such lags most property sectors in Eastern EU, which have begun to show evidence of recovery. The commercial real estate sector has not managed to rebound as the commercial recovery in Croatia continues to be extremely muted and essentially export-driven.
The industrial sector, which noticeably has effects on requirement for economic sector space, remains puny. Indeed, the business production index in Croatia fell by 4.1% y-o-y in February, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Given that Croatia's commercial recovery is only in its nascent stages, it is unsurprising that industry has still to pick up. We are predicting the Croatian economy will come forth from two years of recession in 2011, but the forecast is for puny real GDP expansion of 1.9%.
The recovery will be principally export-driven, benefiting from a positive eurozone expansion story, as customer demand remains constricted by high unemployment of 19.6% in February and puny credit expansion. One positive aspect for the expansion outlook for Croatia is tourism. Croatia is heavily dependent on tourism for economic growth and it is therefore inspiring to see that traveller arrivals have just rebounded strongly. The rebound in service exports will, in turn, reduce unemployment, which we see moderating in 2011 as seasonal work picks up. We foretell 2.0% expansion in private consumption in 2011, following a 0.9% drop in 2010.
Rationally, demand for office space and retail space is barely growing. Industrial space demand has additionally barely ticked up. We saw falls of 20-30% in rental costs for office space between the first half of 2009 and the second half of 2010. Retail hires slipped by 30-40%. Industrial properties bucked the trend, with hires recovering 20-30% in the same period. But economic property hires have now stalled. We see hires and yields remaining essentially flat through 2011 and 2012. Broadly, we think that rates are moderately vulnerable in the Zagreb area, will remain unchanged on low activity in the Zadar area, but have upside potential in the area around Split where some new commercial properties are to be developed by foreign speculators. So , you can buy some Croatia real estate if you interested in life in Croatia.
It is hard to imagine any told recovery within the outlook period. The commercial recovery will be slow and export-oriented. Unemployment remains stubbornly high. With its economy on a slow expansion path there isn't any reason to expect a major recovery for Croatia's commercial real estate sector at this stage.
Some of the key opportunities now in the property market are :
- The economic environment improves more than anticipated, helped by export expansion, tourism growth and a difference in purchaser demand. Unemployment would need to begin to fall.
- Extension of credit availability to both developers and residential house purchasers, adding more space and more demand. This can indeed be boosted if Croatia's accession talks are positive.
- Strength at the office sector means that vacancy rates have dropped but that projects coming online in 2011 will ensure that demand can be met. Some key risks to the existing real estate market are :
- If Croatia does not complete EU accession this will indeed prove a negative for financier sentiment and in investment in Croatia, which would have a negative tertiary effect on the commercial property sector.
- Should ongoing widespread political protests return to violence, as was seen in February, this would most probably weigh heavily on Croatia's appeal as a tourism hotspot, as reported tagza.com.
